James Spann: Warm, dry day for most of Alabama, with strong storms in north from Alabama NewsCenter on Vimeo.

ANOTHER WARM EARLY SPRING DAY: Birmingham’s official high yesterday was 83 degrees, within a few degrees of the record high for March 20 — 87, set in 1907. We go back into the 80s today, but Birmingham’s record will be safe (it was 90 degrees on March 21, 1907, our record today). The sky will be partly sunny, and most of the day will be dry.

However, a surface front over Tennessee will push southward this afternoon, and a band of strong to severe storms will clip far North Alabama this evening. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a “slight risk” for the Tennessee Valley region of North Alabama, with a “marginal risk” down to Cullman and Gadsden.

Storms over far North and Northeast Alabama this evening could produce hail and strong winds; the tornado threat is very low because of relatively weak wind fields. The main window for stronger storms will come from 5 p.m. until 8 p.m.

TOMORROW/THURSDAY: The surface front will sag slowly southward across Alabama, and we expect a slow cooling trend with a high back in the 70s tomorrow, and 60s Thursday. We will mention just a small risk of a shower tomorrow, but scattered showers seem to be a little more likely Thursday, when the surface front begins to push northward as a warm front.

For now, Friday looks rain-free with a decent amount of sun and a high close to 70 degrees, pretty close to average for late March in Alabama.

STORMY WEEKEND: A surface low, with good upper air support, will move from Kansas to near Chicago, and Alabama will be in the “warm sector,” meaning potential for stormy weather over the weekend. The Global Forecast System is a little slower in the arrival of the rain, now suggesting it might be late Saturday or Saturday night before showers and storms arrive in Alabama. The reliable European model still shows a chance of showers and storms as early as Saturday afternoon. Both models hint the rain will continue into at least part of the day Sunday.

Due to the uncertainty of the timing, the SPC has pulled Alabama out of the severe weather risk area for Saturday for now, showing the threat just to the west.

The bottom line is that strong to severe storms are possible across Alabama at some point over the weekend, but confidence is low for now on the timing or magnitude of the threat.

NEXT WEEK: A few scattered showers are possible Monday and Tuesday, and it looks like some potential for strong storms by Thursday or Friday.

STORM SPOTTER TRAINING TONIGHT IN CLAY COUNTY: We will be on the road through early April offering free storm spotter classes. We need more trained spotters in Alabama. By attending, you can make the severe weather warning process better. No need to register; just come with a curious mind. And there is no age limit; kids who love weather will enjoy it. You will never look at a storm the same again. The next class is this evening in Lineville at the Clay County Farmers Market on Highway 9; it begins at 6:30.

ON THIS DATE IN 1932: It was Alabama’s deadliest tornado outbreak; the records show that 268 died in Alabama March 21, 1932, but I suspect the death toll was much, much higher. One long-track F-4 tornado tore through the western part of Tuscaloosa and into Northport, killing 37. Forming 30 minutes after the Tuscaloosa tornado, the deadliest tornado of the outbreak carved a path 60 miles long southeast of Birmingham across Perry, Bibb, Chilton, Shelby and Coosa counties. Also the longest-tracked single tornado to touch down this day, it was followed an hour later by another F-4 tornado, on a path eight miles to the southeast. Each killed an estimated 19 people in Chilton County alone. The first, earlier event killed 21 people, including entire families, near the town of Jemison and in the Union Grove community, both in Chilton County.

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