Brian Peters: Humid, soupy airmass sticks over Alabama from Alabama NewsCenter on Vimeo.

TODAY: Nothing like starting out the early morning with a few thunderstorms, though those have dissipated. We also have a flash flood watch in effect from Birmingham northeastward into the northwest corner of Georgia valid until 7 this evening. Heavy rainfall over the past few days has resulted in a very saturated ground. Any prolonged period of heavy rain may result in localized flash flooding across this area this afternoon.

In addition to this, the Storm Prediction Center has much of Central Alabama in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms today. We continue to be in a very moisture-rich air mass with precipitable water values running 1.6 to 1.8 inches. This air mass should destabilize quickly with late morning and early afternoon heating, resulting in CAPE values from 2,500 to 3,000 J/kg as highs climb into the upper 80s. We also have a couple of boundaries to deal with. One is the weak frontal boundary stretching from the eastern Great Lakes into northern Arkansas and the other the large cluster of thunderstorms that moved across southern Arkansas last night and early this morning. The result will be an unstable air mass with the potential for producing strong to severe thunderstorms capable of generating damaging wind. Take any severe thunderstorm warnings your hear seriously. The overall threat should diminish as the sun sets this evening and we lose the afternoon heating.

THE NEXT WEEK: Unfortunately, the air mass is not likely to change for us for the foreseeable future. This means that our overall weather pattern remains somewhat unsettled with daily chances for thunderstorms. The overall upper air pattern is forecast to remain with a trough over the eastern U.S. and an upper ridge over the Rockies. A strong short wave moving across the northern tier of the U.S. will help to reinforce that troughiness on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. This means that we stay out of any excessive heat and stay at or just slightly below seasonal temperature averages. The western U.S. will not be so lucky, as a very large upper ridge is forecast to build northward into Canada. This large ridge is likely to play a role in our weather for Week 2.

With continuation of a moisture-rich air mass and daily highs in the range of the upper 80s to lower 90s, we’ll have to mention scattered showers each day. I sometimes feel that we’re playing the old Whack-A-Mole game trying to specify rain chances each day with variations of 10 or 20 percent. The bottom line is that there will be showers and storms every day, coverage will change from day to day, not everyone will get a shower every day,and we have very little skill in telling you that one day will be 30 percent and another day will be 40 percent.

BEACH FORECAST: The weather at the beach will feature the possibility of a passing shower just about every day for the next week, with highs in the upper 80s. There is no indication of any all-day rain situation, so you should be able to enjoy the beach with only short interruptions for a passing shower. Please heed those showers and don’t become a lightning statistic. Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page.

BEYOND NEXT WEEK: There is very bad news for voodoo country. June was a relatively cool month, and July is starting off about average, but the Global Forecast System is bullish on changing that pattern. By Tuesday, July 11, the big upper ridge has begun migrating east, with a center over the Dakotas. By July 14, the big ridge covers nearly all of the U.S. except the extreme northwest corner and New England. By July 16 the ridge is much weaker, but it is centered over the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys. So the GFS is suggesting hot weather for us from July 12 to July 16.

Enjoy your day, and stay safe should you be affected by thunderstorms. Godspeed.

For more weather news and information, visit AlabamaWx.