Click here to view or print the entire monthly report compliments of the ACRE Corporate Cabinet.

Sales: According to the North Alabama Multiple Listing Service, Morgan County (Decatur) residential sales totaled 86 units during November, down 19.6 percent from the same month in 2016. Home sales in Morgan County during November 2016 totaled 107 units. Year-to-date sales are up 5.4 percent from 2016. Two more resources to review: Quarterly Report and the Annual Report.

Click here for all Morgan County residential data.

Forecast: November sales were seven units (7 percent) below the Alabama Center for Real Estate’s monthly forecast. ACRE projected 1,293 closed transactions year to date, while the actual sales were 1,362 units.

Supply: Morgan County area housing inventory totaled 636 units, a decrease of 9.9 percent from November 2016. Inventory was 5.5 percent below the prior month. Historical data indicates November inventory on average (2012-16) decreases from October by 10.6 percent.

The inventory-to-sales ratio during November was 7.4 months of housing supply. The market equilibrium (balance between supply and demand) is approximately 6 months. In November 2016, the supply stood at 6.6 months. The months-of-supply figure has declined 51.3 percent from the November peak reached in 2010 (15.2 months of supply), which is encouraging news, especially for sellers.

Demand: November residential sales decreased by 34.4 percent from the prior month. Historical data indicate November sales on average (2012-16) decrease from October by 21.5 percent. The average number of days on the market until a listing sold was 72 days, down 12.2 percent from the previous November.

Pricing: The Morgan County median sales price during November was $145,950, which is 22.3 percent above October 2016’s $119,300. Differing sample size from month to month can contribute to statistical volatility, including pricing. ACRE recommends consulting with a local real estate professional to discuss pricing, as it will vary from neighborhood to neighborhood.

Industry perspective: “The economy and real estate markets continue to show they are resilient. Regardless of the economic metric — GDP, monthly jobs or home prices — the dashboard registers an ‘all-systems-go’ economy,” said KC Conway, director of research and corporate engagement at the Alabama Center for Real Estate. “GDP started the year off with its best Q1 reading in several years and followed it up with above 3 percent readings for Q2 and Q3. (This year) will be the first year since the financial crisis that the economy registered an annual GDP greater than 2 percent. It was just plus 1.6 percent for 2016.

“Job growth is healthy as well. The first week of December the market received solid monthly jobs reports from both ADP (which measures private industry job formation) and the BLS (the government’s monthly jobs report produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics). ADP reported a healthy new 190,000 private-sector jobs for November and a monthly average of 210,000 jobs over the prior 12 months. The BLS reported November jobs at a higher-than-expected level of 228,000 jobs – and its year-to-date monthly average is 174,000. Unemployment remains low at 4.1 percent, and inflation was just reported on December 13th at 1.7 percent for the “core rate” (which excludes the more volatile food and energy components) and 2.2 percent overall annualized due to higher energy prices.

“The Federal Reserve is taking note of the expanding economy and followed up its prior two rate hikes earlier in 2017 with a 0.25 percent rate increase at its December 13th meeting. Housing conditions remain conducive to growth in new supply and more transaction activity. Single-family home inventories are below demand levels across the nation, Southeast and most Alabama markets. The national rate of appreciation is running above 6 percent on the heels of 5-plus percent in 2016. This is leading builders and lenders to be more receptive to adding inventory. New housing starts and permits will likely end 2017 at or above the 1.3 million units level, split 30 percent multifamily and 70 percent single-family. The outlook heading into 2018 is the best we have seen in a decade.”

Click here to generate more graphs from the Morgan County November Housing Report, including Total Sales, Average Sales Price, Days on the Market, Total Inventory and Months of Supply. 

The Morgan County Residential Monthly Report is developed in conjunction with the Morgan County Association of Realtors to better serve area consumers.