Brian Peters: Warm, occasionally wet weekend for Alabama from Alabama NewsCenter on Vimeo.

The weekend is starting on a mostly cloudy note across the Southeast, with very light, spotty showers across mainly the northern third of Alabama. Temperatures qualify as mild, with readings mainly in the 50s, but it was a little cooler in east central Alabama, where values were in the 40s. Showers today will be moving from northwest to the southeast.

Rainfall over the next five days through Thursday morning range from southeast Alabama, where it will be around a third of an inch, to nearly 3 inches in northwest Alabama. Part of the reason for the large amounts over the Lower Mississippi River Valley is an upper flow that will maintain a tap into Pacific moisture for much of the week ahead.

The Storm Prediction Center maintains a severe weather threat mainly to our west for days 3, 4 and 5. Instability and shear values rise ahead of a slow-moving cold front on Thursday, so we’ll have to keep an eye on the potential for severe storms that day. The current projection would signal the threat to be the greatest to our south.

Today and Sunday will see similar days — chances for showers and warm temperatures, with highs reaching into the lower half of the 70s. Aloft we have a ridge with weak disturbances traveling through the flow to enhance showers off and on while a deep trough slowly lumbers through the Southwest. Late Sunday and into Monday we’re likely to see a nice cold-air damming situation, also known as the wedge, set up with the big high centered over the New England states. This wedge is the reason for dropping the highs for Monday into the 50s. Monday could easily be one of those dreary days with an overcast sky, fog and drizzle, and rather chilly temperatures. The high should be in the upper 50s, providing the wedge does set up across all of north and central Alabama.

The deep trough over the Southwest begins Wednesday to move northeastward, reaching the mid-Atlantic states by Saturday. This sets up the Southeast for the potential round of severe storms on Thursday. This is one to keep our eyes on, but it could certainly lead to severe weather for the Gulf Coast region because of the position of the surface low over southeast Mississippi. The SPC notes no specific outlook area for Day 5 because of the uncertainties in the quality of the thermodynamic profiles. Temperatures for much of the week after Monday should climb back into the 70s. After the surface low and the cold front move by on Thursday, we should see highs again in the 60s and lows in the 40s. Next weekend promises to be dry and sunny, with temperatures pretty close to seasonal averages for the latter part of March and very early April.

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Have a great day and Godspeed.

For more weather news and information from James Spann, Brian Peters and other members of the James Spann team, visit AlabamaWx.