James Spann: Stormy start to the day; higher severe weather potential over south Alabama
James Spann forecasts two days of active weather for Alabama from Alabama NewsCenter on Vimeo.
RADAR CHECK: A large mass of rain and thunderstorms has pushed into Alabama this morning. There is no surface-based instability over the northern half of the state, so for north Alabama the main concern will be heavy rain and possibly some small hail. The greater severe weather threat today will be over the southern counties, where stronger storms will be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes.
The rain will end from northwest to southeast during midday, and most of north and central Alabama will be dry this afternoon and tonight with only isolated showers. Storms will persist across the southeast part of the state this afternoon, where the severe weather threat will continue. The high today will be in the low to mid 70s.
WEDNESDAY: A cold front will slice into Alabama and will bring a line of showers and strong storms to the state during the afternoon and evening. While the deeper moisture will be well to the east, the air will become very unstable ahead of the front. The Storm Prediction Center has defined an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) for places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, Gadsden, Huntsville and Fort Payne; the rest of the state is in a slight risk (level 2 of 5).
Wind profiles are mainly unidirectional, so the main threat with the line of storms will come from large hail and damaging winds, but an isolated tornado can’t be totally ruled out. The line will pass through during the 2 to 8 p.m. time frame; any one spot will see rain for only an hour or so. The rain won’t be as widespread as this morning with the limited moisture.
Thursday and Friday will be dry with a big cooling trend; the high Thursday will be in the mid 60s, and on Friday most places across the northern half of the state won’t get out of the 50s with a very cool breeze.
LATE-SEASON FROST/FREEZE THREAT: Lows will drop into the 30- to 38-degree range early Saturday morning over the northern half of Alabama with potential for frost in most places and a freeze for colder spots. Sunday morning could be just as cold; growers need to monitor temperature forecasts this week. On the positive side, the weekend will feature lots of sunshine with highs in the mid 60s Saturday and low to mid 70s Sunday.
NEXT WEEK: Global models are hinting some risk of showers for parts of north Alabama Monday night and Tuesday, but generally speaking much of next week looks dry for Alabama with a warming trend; we reach the low 80s by Wednesday.
ON THIS DATE IN 1936: Approximately 454 people were killed in the second-deadliest tornado outbreak ever in the U.S. More than 12 twisters struck Arkansas to South Carolina. An estimated F5 tornado cut a path 400 yards wide through the residential section of Tupelo, Mississippi. At least 216 people were killed and 700 were injured. The tornado had a 15-mile-long path and did $3 million in damage. One of the survivors in Tupelo was a baby of an economically strapped family, an infant they’d named Elvis Aaron Presley. Gainesville, Georgia, had at least 203 fatalities and 934 injuries from an estimated F4 tornado that occurred early the following morning.
In Alabama, four people were killed by a tornado in Red Bay (Franklin County) during this outbreak.
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