James Spann forecasts milder temperatures for Alabama from Alabama NewsCenter on Vimeo.

RADAR CHECK: A band of showers is moving across north Alabama early this morning; this rain should be out of the state by mid-morning. The sky becomes partly sunny this afternoon with a high between 58 and 62 degrees. The average high for Birmingham on Nov. 22 is 63.REST OF THE WEEK: Wednesday will be dry and mild, with a high in the mid to upper 60s as the warming trend continues. On Thanksgiving Day clouds will increase, and some rain could move into the western counties of the state by mid to late afternoon. Rain is more likely statewide Thursday night. Expect a high Thursday between 67 and 72 degrees, 5-10 degrees above average.

Friday looks fairly wet, with periods of rain and possibly a thunderstorm. There’s no risk of severe storms, and it won’t rain all day. The high will be in the mid 60s.

THE WEEKEND: Forecast confidence Saturday remains low due to model inconsistency. An upper low to the west in the southern branch of the jet stream will keep rain over the state for at least a part of the day. The reliable European model continues to trend slower, suggesting rain could linger much of the day. Some thunder is possible, but for now we don’t expect any severe storms. Saturday’s high will be in the mid 60s, and the rain will end Saturday night.

Sunday will be dry and pleasant with a high between 63 and 67 degrees.

NEXT WEEK: An upper ridge will build across the Gulf Coast, meaning much of the week will be mild and dry, with highs in the 60s. The European global model continues to hint at a round of rain Wednesday. There’s no sign of freezing temperatures for at least the next 10 days.IRON BOWL: For Saturday’s big game (Auburn at Alabama, 2:30 p.m. kickoff in Tuscaloosa), we are going to need to introduce a chance of rain during the game with temperatures generally in the low 60s. This remains a low-confidence forecast; we will have much better clarity as we get closer to the weekend. But, for now, plan on taking the rain gear. Rain is also likely Saturday morning in Tuscaloosa.

TROPICS: All remains quiet, and tropical storm formation is very unlikely for the rest of the month. The hurricane season ends in eight days.

ON THIS DATE IN 1992: A total of 45 tornadoes touched down in the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Georgia was hard hit with two F4, one F3 and three F2 tornadoes that killed six people and injured 144. Indiana had 15 tornadoes to set records for an outbreak in November and the most tornadoes in the whole month of November. One, an F4 multiple-vortex type, cut a 22-mile path through extreme southeastern Indiana and northern Kentucky. This tornado debunked the myth that twisters don’t cross rivers, as this devastating tornado crossed the Ohio River twice. Indiana had 15 tornadoes to set two state records, the largest November tornado outbreak and the most tornadoes in November. This outbreak made a significant contribution to what was to become the biggest November ever for the U.S. concerning the number of tornadoes.

Alabama had 13 tornadoes touch down, ranging in strength from F0 to F2, with no deaths and 53 injuries. The tornado with the most injuries occurred just outside Sardis City, where multiple structures were damaged and 12 people were injured.

BEACH FORECAST: Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.