James Spann forecasts active weather for Alabama beginning tonight from Alabama News Center on Vimeo.

COMPLEX FORECAST: The weather will be increasingly active across Alabama through Friday, and the forecast is a bit complex (which is expected in early March in Alabama). Moisture levels are rising across Alabama, but a decent part of the day today will be dry with a high around 80 degrees. The sun could break out at times this afternoon as well.

A few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will form by mid to late afternoon over the northern half of the state, but a capping inversion (a layer of warm air aloft) will keep the storms widely spaced. Where they do form they could be strong, with potential for some small hail and gusty winds.

Then, tonight, an organized batch of rain and storms will settle down into the Tennessee Valley of north Alabama. These storms will have potential to produce some hail and strong winds, and there is also a low-end tornado threat. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has that part of the state in a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms tonight.

The storms across the northern quarter of Alabama will also produce heavy rain; a flash flood watch has been issued for the Tennessee Valley.

THURSDAY: The day will be mostly cloudy with a good chance of occasional showers and a few thunderstorms. While a strong storm can’t be ruled out, we aren’t expecting any organized severe weather as the main upper support will be well to the west. there is a level 4 moderate risk of severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening for the ArkLaTex region around Shreveport, Louisiana. The high will be between 75 and 80 degrees for most places.

FRIDAY: A fast-moving line of showers and storms will move through the state Friday morning. The SPC has most of Alabama in a slight risk (level 2).

Thankfully there will be very little surface-based instability available, but kinematics/dynamics will be very strong, and the line of storms will be capable of producing strong, potentially damaging winds. A brief, isolated tornado or two can’t be ruled out as well along the line. Be sure and pay attention to severe thunderstorm warnings Friday morning as they are issued.

Gradient winds (not related to thunderstorms) will be very strong Friday, so expect some power outages. The sky will clear Friday afternoon following the storms with a high between 65 and 70 degrees.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Expect sunny, pleasant days and fair, cool nights over the weekend. The high will be in the 60s Saturday, followed by 70s Sunday. Lows will be mostly in the 40s, but colder spots could visit the upper 30s early Sunday morning.

NEXT WEEK: Monday will be dry and mild; then we will bring in a chance of showers for the northern half of the state Tuesday and Wednesday. For now, we aren’t expecting any severe thunderstorms next week.

ON THIS DATE IN 1983: Two tornadoes caused damage in the Los Angeles area during the morning. The strongest tornado was an F2 on the ground for 21 minutes.

ON THIS DATE IN 2007: An EF-4 tornado slammed into Enterprise in south Alabama. Large sections of the town were severely damaged; winds of 170 mph hit Enterprise High School during the middle of the school day. Eight students were killed and 50 more were taken to area hospitals. Another resident died in her home, bringing the death toll to nine. A tornado warning was in effect 18 minutes before the storm reached Enterprise. The school officials did the right thing by keeping the students in school. The death toll most likely would have been much higher if those high school kids were out in their cars or in homes hit by the tornado.

The eight students who died that day were Michael Bowen, Peter Dunn, A.J. Jackson, Ryan Mohler, Katie Strunk, Michael Tompkins, Jamie Ann Vidensek and Michelle Wilson.

BEACH FORECAST: Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.