Published On: 09.25.23 | 

By: James Spann

James Spann: Spotty showers around Alabama through Wednesday

James Spann forecasts some scattered rain for Alabama from Alabama News Center on Vimeo.

RADAR CHECK: We note a few scattered showers over southwest Alabama early this morning; otherwise, it is a dry start to the day with temperatures ranging from the upper 50s over north Alabama to the mid 70s over the western counties, where clouds are in place. We expect a mix of sun and clouds today with just a few isolated showers and a high in the 80s.

REST OF THE WEEK: Scattered showers will remain possible statewide Tuesday and Wednesday. We can’t promise rain for everyone; odds of any one spot seeing rain both days are 30-40%. The highest coverage of rain will likely come Wednesday across the southern counties. We trend drier Thursday with only a small risk of a shower. Friday looks rain-free with a good supply of sunshine. Highs will hold in the 80s through the week, with lows mostly in the 60s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK: For now, the weather looks dry over the weekend and through much of next week with mostly sunny, warm days and fair, pleasant nights. Highs will be in the 80s, lows in the 60s.

TROPICS: Tropical Storm Philippe is in the Atlantic far from land with winds of 50 mph. It is about 1,260 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) keeps the system under hurricane strength through the week and shows a gradual gain in latitude.

There is a good bit of uncertainty in the forecast track. The American Global Forecast System model shows a stronger system that turns north, then heads out to sea far from any land. But the European global model shows a weaker system that keeps moving west/northwest. We will keep an eye on it.

Closer to home, disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in association with a surface trough of low pressure and an upper-level trough. Further development, if any, is expected to be slow to occur over the next few days while the system moves slowly westward. By the middle of the week, upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for additional development. The NHC gives it only a 10% chance of development.

In the eastern Atlantic, an area of low pressure (Invest 91L) several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a broad area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form around midweek as the system moves west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. This one will likely turn north and won’t be a threat to land.

We expect no tropical storms or hurricanes near the Gulf of Mexico for at least the next seven days.

ON THIS DATE IN 1848: The Great Gale of 1848 was the most severe hurricane to affect Tampa Bay, Florida, and is one of two major hurricanes to make landfall in the area. This storm produced the highest storm tide ever experienced in Tampa Bay when the water rose 15 feet in six to eight hours.

ON THIS DATE IN 1998: Four hurricanes were spinning simultaneously in the Atlantic basin: Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl. That was the first time this had happened since 1893.

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