WARM, DRY AFTERNOON: The sky is partly to mostly sunny across Alabama this afternoon with temperatures generally in the 80s. Clouds will increase tonight ahead of an approaching storm system. Some rain is likely after midnight.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Occasional rain and a few thunderstorms are likely across Alabama and the Deep South Friday into Saturday. The first batch of rain will arrive early Friday morning; heavier storms are possible near the Gulf Coast. Several additional waves of rain and thunderstorms will continue through the afternoon and night, but it certainly won’t rain all day and all night. The Storm Prediction Center has amended its forecast; the slight risk area (level 2 of 5) has been adjusted southward and includes areas south of a line from Thomasville to Montgomery to Phoenix City. A marginal risk (level 1) is defined as far north as Hamilton, Pell City and Wedowee.

There will be very limited surface-based instability over the northern half of the state; the main threat of strong to severe thunderstorms will be across the southern counties through Friday night.

The main threat from heavier storms across south Alabama will come from hail and strong, gusty winds. An isolated tornado can’t be ruled out.

It won’t rain all day Saturday, but periods of rain are likely, with some thunder. There is a marginal risk (level 1) of severe storms over the southeast half of the state. It is almost impossible to say when rain will fall for any given location, but most places will see one to two hours of rain.

Rain amounts through Saturday night will be 2-3 inches for much of Alabama, with 1-2 inches for the Tennessee Valley. Some flooding is possible over the southern half of the state.

Global models are hinting that a few scattered showers could pop up Sunday morning as an upper low moves overhead; still, most of Sunday will be dry with a partly sunny sky and a high in the mid 80s.

NEXT WEEK: The weather looks generally dry with highs between 88 and 92 degrees most afternoons. A weak front could kick off a few isolated showers over north Alabama Wednesday and Thursday, but rain amounts will be light and spotty.

ON THIS DATE IN 1989: Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather in the south-central U.S. Thunderstorms spawned 20 tornadoes, and there were 180 reports of large hail and damaging winds. A tornado in Cleburne, Texas, caused $30 million damage. A violent F-4 tornado touched down near Brackettville, Texas, and a strong F-3 tornado killed one person and injured 28 others at Jarrell, Texas.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.