James Spann forecasts a quiet Thursday for Alabama, then an uptick in storms Friday and Saturday from Alabama News Center on Vimeo.

MOSTLY DRY TODAY: There’s no rain across Alabama early this morning, and much of the state will be dry today, with only isolated showers and storms this afternoon over the southern third of the state. Expect a high between 90 and 95 degrees for most places; a few upper 90s are possible over the far southwest counties.

An approaching surface front will bring the chance of scattered storms statewide Friday and Saturday. While it won’t rain everywhere, where storms do develop, they could be heavy with strong, gusty winds. The Storm Prediction Center has defined a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms for the northern third of the state Friday and for the northern two-thirds of the state Saturday. Stronger storms will come mainly during the afternoons and evenings; odds of any one spot seeing rain are 30-40% Friday and 45-55% Saturday.

Drier air begins to move in Sunday; any scattered showers or storms will likely be over the southern half of Alabama. Highs will be mostly in the low 90s Friday through the weekend.

NEXT WEEK: A refreshing air mass is forecast to drop into the Deep South next week. Highs will drop into the 80s over the northern counties of Alabama Monday through Thursday, with lows well down in the 60s. Cooler spots will likely see 50s by Tuesday and Wednesday mornings for a nice preview of fall. Most of the week will be dry, although a few isolated showers could show up by Thursday and Friday.

TROPICS: Hurricane Ernesto is in the Atlantic with winds of 85 mph, centered about 635 miles south/southwest of Bermuda. A hurricane warning has been issued for Bermuda; it will be close to the island Saturday as a Category 2 storm.

Ernesto is no threat to the U.S., and the rest of the Atlantic basin remains very quiet.

ON THIS DATE IN 1983: Hurricane Alicia formed and was the costliest tropical cyclone in the Atlantic since Hurricane Agnes in 1972. It struck Galveston and Houston, Texas, directly, causing $2.6 billion in damage (in 1983 U.S. dollars) and killing 21 people. This storm was the worst Texas hurricane since Hurricane Carla in 1961.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.