RADAR CHECK: We have a few small, isolated showers over east Alabama this afternoon that are moving northward; the rest of the state is mostly cloudy but dry. Temperatures are generally in the 70s. The showers will end this evening; lows tonight will be in the 60s with a mostly cloudy sky.

Thursday will be warm and mostly dry, with a high in the low 80s, but rain is likely for the northwest corner of the state late Thursday afternoon, Thursday night and into part of the day Friday. The best chance of showers will be north of a line from Tuscaloosa to Cullman to Fort Payne; areas around Florence and the Shoals down to places like Russellville and Hamilton have potential for one-half to 1 inch of rain. Showers will be hard to find from Birmingham south and east.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: The weather looks generally dry and warm Saturday and Sunday, with highs in the low 80s, about 10 degrees above average for early November in Alabama.

Unfortunately, global models aren’t giving us much hope for meaningful rain next week as an upper ridge deflects the main storm systems well to the north and west of the state. Highs remain in the low 80s, but there is evidence a much cooler air mass will arrive around Nov. 8-9.

TROPICS: A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by the end of the week. Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the system drifts generally northward over the central or western Caribbean Sea.

The National Hurricane Center gives the system a 40% chance of development; global models generally show a very weak tropical low meandering around the northern Caribbean.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Jacksonville State will take on Liberty tonight (6 p.m. CT kickoff) in Lynchburg; the sky will be clear with temperatures falling into the 60s.

For the high school games Friday night, a few isolated showers can’t be ruled out over the northern third of Alabama, but most stadiums will be dry with temperatures falling through the 70s, reaching the 60s by the four quarter.

Saturday, Auburn hosts Vanderbilt at Jordan-Hare Stadium (11:45 a.m. kickoff). Expect a good supply of sunshine with temperatures rising from near 78 at kickoff into the low 80s by the second half.

UAB will host Tulsa at Protective Stadium in downtown Birmingham (1:30 p.m. kickoff). The sky will be mostly sunny with temperatures hovering around 80 degrees during the game.

Troy will host Coastal Carolina (3 p.m. kickoff); it will be sunny with temperatures falling from near 82 at kickoff into the 70s by the fourth quarter.

ON THIS DATE IN 1991: The Perfect Storm, also known as the No-Name Storm, reached maximum strength with a low pressure of 972 millibars and sustained winds of 69 mph.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.