Click here to view or print the entire monthly report compliments of the ACRE Corporate Cabinet.

Sales: According to the North Alabama Multiple Listing Service, Morgan County (Decatur) residential sales totaled 90 units during February, down 18.2 percent from the same month in 2017, when home sales in the area totaled 110 units. Existing single-family homes accounted for 93 percent of February residential sales, while newly constructed homes were 7 percent. Two more resources to review: Quarterly Report and the Annual Report.

Click here for all Morgan County residential data.

Forecast: February sales were 6 units, or 6.3 percent, below the Alabama Center for Real Estate’s monthly forecast. ACRE projected 96 sales for the area during February, while there were 90 actual closed transactions. ACRE forecasts a total of 1,432 sales in the Decatur area during 2018. There were 1,482 actual sales during 2017. 

Supply: Morgan County housing inventory totaled 526 units, a decrease of 18.6 percent from February 2017. Inventory was 4.2 percent below the prior month. Historical data indicate that February inventory on average (2013-17) increases from January by 0.4 percent. The five-year average for total homes listed in the Decatur area during the month of February is 798 units.

Demand: February residential sales in the Decatur area decreased 14.3 percent from the prior month. This is inconsistent with historical data indicating that February sales on average (2013-17) increase from January by 18.7 percent. For February, the average number of days on the market until a listing sold was 97 days, down 19.2 percent from the previous February. The five-year days-on-market average for February is 129 days.

Seeking balance: The inventory for sale divided by the current monthly sales volume equals the number of months of housing supply. The market equilibrium, or balance between supply and demand, is considered by most real estate professionals to be approximately 6 months. During February, the Decatur area had 5.8 months of housing supply, down from 5.9 months of supply one year ago. The months-of-supply figure has declined 61.8 percent from the 10-year February peak reached in 2011, when the area had 15.3 months of housing supply. This trend is encouraging news, especially for sellers.

Pricing: The Morgan County median sales price during February was $126,000, which is 26.1 percent above February 2017’s median sales price of $99,900. The median price in the area decreased 0.7 percent from the previous month. Differing sample size from month to month can contribute to statistical volatility, including pricing. ACRE recommends consulting with a local real estate professional to discuss pricing, as it will vary from neighborhood to neighborhood.

Industry perspective: The 10-year treasury is a crucial indicator of economic expansion. As of March 1, 2018, the 10-year treasury stood at 2.88 percent, a slight increase from last month’s rate of 2.86 percent. Mortgage rates also experienced a slight increase recently as the current rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 4.57 percent, up from 4.38 percent one month ago. As the economy continues to strengthen, people will have more money in their pockets with the intent to spend. This increase in spending will most likely create higher stock prices and lower bond prices. With this increase of confidence in the market, mortgage interest rates can be expected to increase.

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) produces economic analyses of the home-building industry based on government data. The Housing Market Index (HMI) depicts market conditions for the sale of new homes. The HMI ranges from 0 to 100; a rate greater than 50 represents good sales conditions.

The HMI in the South has stayed relatively steady in the past few months with a score of 73. However, the HMI is lower in some regions of the United States, such as the Northeast, which has a rate of 56. The West has a higher HMI of 77, and a better market for good housing conditions.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency uses the House Price Index (HPI) to measure the average price changes in repeat sales or refinancing on the same properties. The FHFA’s national HPI was up 6.7 percent from the previous year compared to Alabama, which has increased from the previous year by 5.6 percent. The HPI rose in all 49 states except for Mississippi.

Compared to the national housing market conditions, Alabama’s real estate market has been showing improvement. Although total residential sales in Alabama decreased 2.3 percent from January 2017, the statewide median sales price increased 2.3 percent from January 2017. Statewide, homes in Alabama are selling much more quickly than in recent years as the average days on the market decreased 19.6 percent from one year ago.

Click here to generate more graphs from the Morgan County February Housing Report, including Total Sales, Average Sales Price, Days on the Market, Total Inventory and Months of Supply. 

The Morgan County Residential Monthly Report is developed in conjunction with the Morgan County Association of Realtors to better serve area consumers.