James Spann forecasts a holding pattern for Alabama’s weather from Alabama NewsCenter on Vimeo.

CLASSIC SUMMER WEATHER CONTINUES: The overall weather situation won’t change much for Alabama through the weekend. An upper ridge will remain parked over the southern U.S., meaning partly sunny, hot, humid days with scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day. Most of them will come from about 1 until 9 p.m., and odds of any one spot getting wet will remain around 30% through Sunday. Afternoon highs will be between 91 and 95 degrees for most communities. Just what you expect in late July around here.

NEXT WEEK: Don’t look for much change Monday, but we still see evidence that showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous by Tuesday and through the middle of the week as moisture levels rise and the air aloft becomes colder, making for higher instability. Highs will drop into the upper 80s and low 90s due to the increase in showers.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT: A new tropical depression has formed in the central Gulf of Mexico; it is moving west toward Texas and is expected to become Tropical Storm Hanna tonight or Friday. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Port Mansfield to High Island, Texas; landfall is expected Saturday. The main impact will be heavy rain and potential flooding over parts of south Texas this weekend. There will be no direct impact to Alabama or the central Gulf Coast other than increased rip-current danger.

TROPICAL STORM GONZALO: Gonzalo is 970 miles east of the Windward Islands and is packing sustained winds of 65 mph. It is expected to become a hurricane over the next 24 hours and will move through the islands and into the Caribbean this weekend. Some weakening is forecast then due to dry air and subsidence (sinking air motion), but it now looks like the system will survive those conditions. Most model ensemble members (but not all) bring it into the Gulf of Mexico in a week or so. It’s way too early to know whether this will impact the U.S.

HURRICANE DOUGLAS: Over in the Pacific, Douglas features sustained winds of 120 mph, making it a major hurricane. It is moving toward Hawaii, but, thankfully, weakening is expected and the system should be a tropical storm by the time it reaches the islands this weekend. Flooding is the main threat.

ON THIS DATE IN 1788: The storm known as George Washington’s Hurricane originated near Bermuda on July 19 before making landfall in Virginia. It passed directly over the Lower Chesapeake Bay and Mount Vernon, the home of George Washington. This track is very similar to the path of the Chesapeake-Potomac hurricane of 1933. At Norfolk, winds increased at 5 p.m. on July 23, with the wind originating from the northeast. At 12:30 a.m., the wind suddenly shifted to the south and “blew a perfect hurricane, tearing down chimneys, fences,” according to a written account.

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