Published On: 03.13.16 | 

By: Bryan Davis

Tuscaloosa February home sales see rise over same period in 2015

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Click here to view or print the entire monthly report compliments of the ACRE Corporate Cabinet.

Sales: According to the Tuscaloosa MLS, Tuscaloosa area residential sales totaled 167 units during February, which was up 30 percent from the same period last year. The February average for sales between 2011-15 was 127 units. Two more resources to review: Quarterly Report and Annual Report.

For all of the Tuscaloosa area’s housing data, click here. 

Forecast: February results were 14 units or 9 percent above our monthly forecast. ACRE’s year-to-date sales forecast through February projected 282 closed transactions while the actual sales were 286 units, a favorable difference of 1 percent.

Historical sales

Tuscaloosa home sales increased 30 percent during February year-over-year, according to the latest data from the Tuscaloosa Association of Realtors.

Supply: Tuscaloosa February housing inventory totaled 1,223 units, a decrease of 7 percent from February 2015. February inventory rose 8 percent from the prior month. Historical data indicates that February inventory on average (2011-15) increases from the month of January by 3.4 percent. Inventory has now declined 36 percent from the month of February peak (1,917 units) reached in 2008.

Seeking balance: The inventory-to-sales ratio declined 36 percent year-over-year during February to 7.3 months. Restated, at the February sales pace, it would take 7.3 months to absorb the current inventory for sale. The market equilibrium (balance between supply and demand on non-seasonally adjusted basis) is considered to be approximately 6 months during month of February.

Demand: February residential sales were 40 percent above the prior month. The increase is consistent with seasonal buying patterns and historical data indicating that February sales on average (2011-15) increase from the month of January by 26 percent. Existing single family home sales accounted for 78 percent (down from 84 percent in February 2015) of total sales while 12 percent (up from 9 percent during February 2015) were new home sales and 10 percent (up from 7 percent in February 2015) were condo buyers.

Pricing: The Tuscaloosa median sales price in February was $155,000, an increase of 9 percent when compared to February 2015. The median sales price also was unchanged from January’s price. Historical data (2011-15) indicates that the median sales price in February typically decreases from January by 2.3 percent. It should also be noted that differing sample size (number of residential sales of comparative months) can contribute to statistical volatility including pricing. The Center highly recommends consulting with a real estate professional to discuss pricing as it can and will vary from neighborhood to neighborhood.

Industry Perspective: “Our February results show the most modest consumer home price expectations since late 2012,” said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. “For consumers who think it’s a bad time to buy a home, whose share has trended up from its recent low last November, high home prices have been an increasingly contributing factor. A slower pace of home price appreciation may provide some relief for potential homebuyers, especially first-time buyers who couldn’t reap the benefits of selling a home at high prices to buy another one.” For the full story, click here.

The Tuscaloosa Residential Monthly Report work product developed in conjunction with the Tuscaloosa Association of Realtors to better serve West Alabama consumers.