Brian Peters Alabama NewsCenter weekend forecast for March 12 from Alabama NewsCenter on Vimeo.

Alabama weather is expected to stay warm and somewhat wet for the foreseeable future. The high and low temperatures recorded at the Birmingham Shuttlesworth International Airport yesterday 12 to 20 degrees above the 30-year averages for that date. And don’t forget to set your clocks forward tonight as we begin Daylight Saving Time.

That very deep, low latitude closed low at 500 millibars was finally beginning to show signs of coming out, but at the same time weakening. This morning the closed low was situated over Central Texas and will be continuing to head northeast. This will help to keep our weather somewhat wet in terms of shower/storm risks over the next several days, but it will also keep us warm. Look for the better rain chances to come this afternoon and into tonight and early Sunday. The atmosphere remains very wet as shown by the precipitable water values running well above seasonal values. Highs today will once again be in the 70s.

The upper closed low responsible for all the flooding across the Lower Mississippi River Valley will weaken substantially and move into the Ohio River Valley. Just behind it another tight closed upper low will come out of the Four Corners area of the Southwest US into Southeast Oklahoma. This low will generate a surface low over Oklahoma and produce the potential for severe storms as depicted by the SPC Day 2 outlook over Arkansas, Northwest Mississippi, and northern Louisiana. For us, we’ll forecast a chance for showers and continued warm temperatures with highs in the middle 70s.

That tight closed low moves by on Monday and to the Mid-Atlantic States on Tuesday. On Tuesday we see a transition in the overall pattern to systems much further north as a strong trough develops a surface low in Iowa. This keeps us warm, and the GFS MOS guidance prints out a high of 82 for us. While rain chances will be very low, an isolated shower is possible simply due to the heat of the day.

The upper closed low moves to the eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday with a weak frontal boundary dragging into the Southeast US. Once again the chances for showers will be low, but not zero. As a roughing pattern develops for the eastern half of the country, we’ll see our temperatures gradually fall back with highs Wednesday in the middle 70s.

That overall troughiness over the eastern half of the country will persist through the end of the week into the start of the weekend. This will result in a cooling trend as lows drop back into the 40s and highs fall back into the 60s. These values are actually quite close to the 30-year averages for this time of March.

The latest GFS maintains a fairly active pattern as we venture into voodoo country. Some storms are possible around the 22nd of March with a short wave moving out of the Rockies across the Southeast US. That is followed with another one around the 26th of March. Throughout the voodoo period, we see the upper air pattern maintaining a trough over the eastern half of the country, so no signs of any especially cold weather.

Have a great day, and Godspeed.

-Brian-

For more weather news and information from Brian Peters and the rest of the James Spann weather team, visit Alabama WX.