Birmingham March home sales increase from same period last year
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Sales: According to the Greater Alabama Multiple Listing Service, the Birmingham metro area* residential sales totaled 1,125 units during March, 103 units or 8.6 percent above the same time last year. Two more resources to review: Quarterly Report and Annual Report.
For all of the Birmingham area’s housing data, click here.
Forecast: March sales were 31 units or 2.6 percent below our monthly forecast. Alabama Center for Real Estate’s (ACRE) year-to-date sales forecast projected 2,843 closed transactions while the actual sales were 2,820 units, an unfavorable difference of 0.8 percent.
Year-to-date home sales in Birmingham through March are up 6.5 percent over last year.
Supply: The Birmingham area housing inventory in March was 6,946 units, an increase of 6 percent from March 2015 and up 44 percent from the March peak in 2007 (12,524 units). March inventory in the Birmingham metro area also decreased 20 percent from the prior month. This direction is consistent with seasonal patterns and historical data indicating that March inventory on average (2011-15) increases from February by 2.1 percent.
According to the Greater Alabama MLS, in the Birmingham metro area market, there were 5.7 months of housing supply during March, down favorably from 5.8 during March 2015. Months of supply decreased favorably from February (6.2 months of supply). The “months of housing supply” is a simple calculation – homes listed (supply) divided by homes sold (demand). In general, about 6 months is considered the point of equilibrium during March.
Demand: March residential sales increased by 32 percent from the prior month. This direction is consistent with historical data indicating that March sales, on average (2011-15), increase from February by 26 percent.
Existing single family home sales accounted for 84 percent (down from 86 percent during March 2015) of total sales while 13 percent (up from 11 percent in March 2015) were new home sales and 3 percent (unchanged March 2015) were condo buyers.
Pricing: The median sales price in March was $178,000, an increase of 4.7 percent from last March ($170,000). The March median sales price also increased 4 percent from the prior month. This direction is consistent with historical data (2011-15) indicating that the March median sales price on average increases from February by 4.9 percent. Pricing can fluctuate from month to month as the sample size of data (closed transactions) is subject to seasonal buying patterns. Consulting with a local real estate professional who has access to pricing data at the neighborhood level is recommended.
Industry Perspective: “Growing pessimism over the last three months about the direction of the economy seems to be spilling over into home purchase sentiment,” said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. “The gap between the share of consumers who think the economy is on the wrong track and the share who think it is on the right track has widened, nearly matching its reading last August, when concerns regarding China and oil prices led to the biggest stock market plunge in years. In turn, we saw dips this month in income growth perceptions, attitudes about the home selling climate, and job confidence, all of which contributed to the lowest Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) reading in the last year and a half. These declines seem to be at odds with recent news of solid overall job creation, but may reflect weakening economic performance in certain industries.” For the full report, click here.
The Birmingham Residential Monthly Report is work product developed in conjunction with the Greater Alabama MLS and the Birmingham Association of REALTORS to better serve Birmingham metro area consumers.
