Tuscaloosa March home sales up 22 percent over last year
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Sales: According to the Tuscaloosa MLS, Tuscaloosa area residential sales totaled 226 units during March, which was up 22 percent from the same period last year. The March average for sales between 2011-15 was 156 units. Two more resources to review: Quarterly Report and Annual Report.
For all of the Tuscaloosa area’s housing data, click here.
Forecast: March results were 33 units or 17 percent above our monthly forecast. ACRE’s year-to-date sales forecast through March projected 475 closed transactions while the actual sales were 512 units, a favorable difference of 7.7 percent.
Home sales in Tuscaloosa during March were 45 percent higher than the 156 unit average from 2011-15.
Supply: Tuscaloosa March housing inventory totaled 1,245 units, a decrease of 17 percent from March 2015. March inventory rose 2 percent from the prior month. Historical data indicates that March inventory on average (2011-15) increases from the month of February by 1.7 percent. Inventory has now declined 33 percent from the month of March peak (1,861 units) reached in 2010.
Seeking balance: The inventory-to-sales ratio declined 32 percent year-over-year during March to 5.5 months. Restated, at the March sales pace, it would take 5.5 months to absorb the current inventory for sale. The market equilibrium (balance between supply and demand on non-seasonally adjusted basis) is considered to be approximately 6 months during the month of February.
Demand: March residential sales were 35 percent above the prior month. The increase is consistent with seasonal buying patterns and historical data indicating that March sales on average (2011-15) increase from the month of February by 23 percent. Existing single family home sales accounted for 83 percent (up from 77 percent in March 2015) of total sales while 12 percent (down from 15 percent during March 2015) were new home sales and 5 percent (down from 8 percent in March 2015) were condo buyers.
Pricing: The Tuscaloosa median sales price in March was $159,500, a decrease of 0.3 percent when compared to March 2015. The median sales price also was up 3 percent from February’s price. Historical data (2011-15) indicates that the median sales price in March typically increases from February by 4.3 percent. It should also be noted that differing sample size (number of residential sales of comparative months) can contribute to statistical volatility including pricing. Consult with a real estate professional to discuss pricing as it can and will vary from neighborhood to neighborhood.
Industry Perspective: “Growing pessimism over the last three months about the direction of the economy seems to be spilling over into home purchase sentiment,” said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. “The gap between the share of consumers who think the economy is on the wrong track and the share who think it is on the right track has widened, nearly matching its reading last August, when concerns regarding China and oil prices led to the biggest stock market plunge in years. In turn, we saw dips this month in income growth perceptions, attitudes about the home selling climate, and job confidence, all of which contributed to the lowest Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) reading in the last year and a half. These declines seem to be at odds with recent news of solid overall job creation, but may reflect weakening economic performance in certain industries.” For the full report, click here.
The Tuscaloosa Residential Monthly Report work product developed in conjunction with the Tuscaloosa Association of Realtors to better serve West Alabama consumers.
