The holiday season is officially here, and retailers are ready for their busiest few weeks of the year. The Alabama Retail Association predicts holiday sales in the state could reach as high as $11.4 billion during November and December.

Through September of this year, Alabama has averaged 3 percent growth each month over the same month last year. If sales continue along that trajectory, Alabama could reach $11.2 billion in November and December. Tack on the projected Amazon sales and the total goes up to $11.4 billion, the highest on record.

“We are quite optimistic that we will have our best Christmas ever,” said Margaret Hamm, owner of Monograms Plus in Cullman. “We are thrilled the playing field has been leveled, and that Amazon is no longer being subsidized by our government, by being exempt from sales tax. Alabama certainly needs the tax revenue, and it is nice to see small business score a win.”

Holiday spending could set a record in Alabama this year. (iStock)

With Amazon collecting taxes for the first time in Alabama over those two months, the state estimates Alabamians will buy as much as $200 million in taxable merchandise from the online leader during the holiday shopping season. Online sales, while still a small percentage of overall sales, continue to grow faster than in-store sales. The National Retail Federation predicts a 7-10 percent increase in online shopping over last year, compared to a 3.6 percent increase in overall sales nationwide.

“We feel optimistic, albeit cautiously optimistic, about 2016 holiday sales,” said Ricky Bromberg, chairman of the Alabama Retail Association and president of Bromberg & Co., Alabama’s oldest family-owned retailer. “It’s been a good year, and we’re hoping that continues through the holidays. We are thankful for the customers, new and old, who choose to shop with us.”

Black Friday appeal

While Black Friday has traditionally been viewed as the busiest shopping day of the year, this year national retail surveys predict it could be the third-busiest shopping day of the year behind Friday, Dec. 23, and Super Saturday, Dec. 17.

RetailNext, a firm that tracks retail shopper traffic, attributes that to retailers launching their post-Thanksgiving sales earlier, making Black Friday stand out less than in years past. Surveys show that almost half of consumers (49 percent) want to avoid the crowds and stress of last-minute shopping by spreading out their holiday shopping. Alabama’s local retailers hope customers choose to shop small for their purchases.

“When people choose to spend their dollars locally, those dollars go right back into the community,” Hamm said.

Shoppers are expected to mix in-store, online, large retailers and local shops this holiday season. (iStock)

The Alabama Retail Association has completed a statewide #ShopAlabama for the Holidays tour with stops in Auburn, Dothan, Fairhope, Montgomery, Mountain Brook and Tuscaloosa. The association partnered with the local chambers of commerce and business associations to encourage residents to support the retailers who support their community by shopping local for their holiday purchases.

Retail, including food and drink establishments, supports one in four jobs in Alabama and brings in $19 billion, or almost 10 percent of Alabama’s gross domestic product, placing retail in the state’s top four highest-producing industries outside of government.

American Express has deemed Nov. 26 as “Shop Small Saturday” to encourage shoppers to buy at local, small businesses the day after Black Friday.

Historical holiday shopping numbers

In 2015, taxed holiday sales in Alabama totaled $10.9 billion, a jump of 5.15 percent over the 2014 holiday period, according to Alabama Revenue Department records. That reality exceeded Alabama Retail’s prediction of 4.4 percent growth and close to $11 billion in holiday sales. As it did in 2014, 2015 holiday sales growth in Alabama exceeded the national holiday sales growth. U.S. holiday sales grew 3 percent in 2015, and are expected to grow 3.6 percent this year, according to the National Retail Federation.