Click here to view or print the entire monthly report compliments of the ACRE Corporate Cabinet.

Sales: According to the Tuscaloosa MLS, Tuscaloosa-area residential sales totaled 182 units during December, down 3.2 percent from the same month in 2015. Total sales of 2,457 units in 2016 represent a 16 percent rise from the same period in the previous year. Two more resources to review: Quarterly Report and Annual Report.

For all of the Tuscaloosa area’s housing data, click here. 

December home sales in Tuscaloosa fell from the previous December but ended the year strong, with yearly sales up 16 percent over 2015.

Forecast: December results were 21 units or 13 percent above the Alabama Center for Real Estate’s monthly forecast. ACRE’s 2016 sales forecast through December projected 2,275 closed transactions, while the actual sales were 2,457 units, a favorable difference of 8 percent.

Supply: Tuscaloosa December housing inventory totaled 1,008 units, a decrease of 11 percent from December 2015. December inventory dipped by 10 percent compared to November. Historical data indicate that December inventory on average (2011-15) decreases from November by 7.5 percent. Inventory has now declined 44 percent from the December peak (1,813 units) reached in 2007.

Seeking balance: The inventory-to-sales ratio declined 7.7 percent year-over-year during December to 5.5 months. Restated, at the December sales pace, it would take 5.5 months to absorb the current inventory for sale. The market equilibrium (balance between supply and demand on a non-seasonally adjusted basis) is considered to be approximately 6 months during December.

Demand: December residential sales were 0.6 percent above the prior month. The increase is consistent with seasonal buying patterns and historical data indicating that December sales on average (2011-15) increase from November by 15.6 percent. Existing single-family home sales accounted for 75 percent of total sales (down from 79 percent in December 2015), while 14 percent were new home sales (unchanged from 2015) and 11 percent were condo sales (up from 7 percent).

Pricing: The Tuscaloosa median sales price in December was $170,250, an increase of 7.8 percent compared to December 2015. The median sales price was also up 7.8 percent from November’s price. Historical data (2011-15) indicate that the median sales price in December typically increases from November by 1.7 percent. It should be noted that differing sample size (number of residential sales of comparative months) can contribute to statistical volatility, including pricing. Consult with a real estate professional to discuss pricing, as it will vary from neighborhood to neighborhood.

Industry perspective: “The tenor of our forecast effectively remains unchanged: signs of cautious consumers this quarter, rising interest rates, the renewed increase in the U.S. dollar to a 14-year high, and heightened uncertainty in the political sphere suggest conservatism in our outlook,” said Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan. “While we are encouraged that confidence is rising across investors, consumers, businesses, economists, and homebuilders, much of it appears to be in anticipation that the forthcoming Administration and the new Congress will enact fiscal policies and deregulation that will help spur growth. While we believe that some pro-growth policies could be adopted next year, it would take time for them to benefit the economy, barring any offsetting initiatives such as more restrictive trade policies.”

Click here to generate more graphs from the Tuscaloosa December Housing Report, including Total Sales, Average Sales Price, Days on the Market, Total Inventory and Months of Supply. 

The Tuscaloosa Residential Monthly Report is developed in conjunction with the Tuscaloosa Association of Realtors to better serve West Alabama consumers.