Click here to view or print the entire monthly report compliments of the ACRE Corporate Cabinet.

Sales: According to the North Alabama Multiple Listing Service, Morgan County (Decatur) residential sales totaled 133 units during March, up 1 percent from the same month in 2017, when home sales in the area totaled 132 units. Existing single-family homes accounted for 95 percent of March residential sales, while newly constructed homes were 5 percent. Two more resources to review: Quarterly Report and the Annual Report.

Click here for all Morgan County residential data.

Forecast: March sales were 14 units, or 11.8 percent, above the Alabama Center for Real Estate’s monthly forecast. ACRE projected 119 sales for the area during March, while there were 133 actual closed transactions. ACRE forecasts a total of 1,432 sales in the Decatur area during 2018. There were 1,482 actual sales during 2017. 

Supply: Morgan County housing inventory totaled 505 units, a decrease of 21.5 percent from March 2017. Inventory was 4 percent below the prior month. Historical data indicate that March inventory on average (2013-17) increases from February by 0.5 percent in this area. The five-year average for total homes listed in the Decatur area during the month of March is 803 units.

Demand: March residential sales in the Decatur area increased 47.8 percent from the prior month. This is consistent with historical data indicating that March sales on average (2013-17) increase from February by 21.7 percent. For March, the average number of days on the market until a listing sold was 92 days, down 23.3 percent from the previous March. The five-year days-on-market average for March is 122 days.

Seeking balance: The inventory for sale divided by the current monthly sales volume equals the number of months of housing supply. The market equilibrium, or balance between supply and demand, is considered by most real estate professionals to be approximately 6 months. During March, the Decatur area had 3.8 months of housing supply, down from 4.9 months of supply one year ago. The months-of-supply figure has declined 69.9 percent from the 10-year March peak reached in 2009, when the area had 12.6 months of housing supply.

Pricing: The Morgan County median sales price during March was $138,000, which is 6 percent above March 2017’s median sales price of $130,250. The median price in the area increased 9.5 percent from the previous month. Differing sample size from month to month can contribute to statistical volatility, including pricing. ACRE recommends consulting with a local real estate professional to discuss pricing, as it will vary from neighborhood to neighborhood.

Industry perspective: Interest rates are likely to increase throughout 2018. The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met on March 21 and approved a quarter-point rate hike. As of April 5, the 10-Year Treasury stood at 2.83 percent, down slightly from 2.88 percent one month ago. Although daily yield curve rates have decreased slightly in the past month, many analysts are projecting that the 10-year Treasury will pass 3 percent in the months to come. According to Wells Fargo, the current interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 4.58 percent (annual percentage rate).

As the overall economy continues to expand, it is not surprising to see growth in Alabama’s residential new construction market. February sales of newly constructed homes grew 22 percent month-over-month and 14 percent year-over-year. Statewide*, there were 507 new construction sales in February, up from 416 total sales in January and up from 445 total sales in February 2017. Year-to-date, new construction sales are up 6 percent from 2017.

February new construction sales in select Alabama markets

• Baldwin County – 100
• Birmingham Metro Area – 125
• Huntsville Metro Area – 112
• Lee County – 36
• Mobile Metro Area – 17
• Montgomery Metro Area – 35
• Tuscaloosa County – 15

New construction building permits and housing starts data are indicators of larger economic conditions. Generally speaking, the housing market is one of the first sectors to expand or contract during times of growth or decline. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, 1,225 building permits for new construction were issued in Alabama during February. Building permits increased 1.1 percent from January, when 1,212 permits were issued, and increased 10.1 percent from February 2017, when 1,113 permits were issued. ACRE projected 1,219 housing starts in Alabama during February. Housing starts decreased 2.9 percent from January (1,256) and increased 13 percent from February 2017 (1,079). Year-over-year increases in both building permits and projected housing starts are encouraging news, as they hint toward continued overall economic growth during the second quarter of 2018.

*ACRE receives new construction sales data from the following counties/areas: Baldwin County, Birmingham Metro Area, Calhoun County, Huntsville Metro Area, Lee County, Mobile Metro Area, Montgomery Metro Area, Tuscaloosa County and the Wiregrass Region. Combined, these counties/areas represent +/- 70 percent of Alabama’s total population.

Click here to generate more graphs from the Morgan County March Housing Report, including Total Sales, Average Sales Price, Days on the Market, Total Inventory and Months of Supply. 

The Morgan County Residential Monthly Report is developed in conjunction with the Morgan County Association of Realtors to better serve area consumers.