QUIET PATTERN: While we can’t rule out a shower or two over north Alabama this afternoon and early tonight, most of the state will be dry today with a high between 81 and 84 degrees for most communities. The average high for Birmingham on Oct. 1 is 82. Wednesday will be mostly sunny with highs remaining in the 80s.

We will bring in a chance of showers Thursday over the southern third of the state, and on Friday a few scattered showers are possible statewide. This won’t be an especially heavy or widespread rain, and many communities over north Alabama won’t see a drop due to the scattered nature of the showers.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Most of Alabama will be warm and dry over the weekend with highs in the 80s, but a few showers are possible near the Gulf Coast. Much of next week looks dry as well. Temperatures come down over the latter half of the week, with highs in the upper 70s over north Alabama and lows in the 50s.

TROPICS: Tropical Depression Joyce has dissipated in the central Atlantic this morning. To the east, Tropical Storm Kirk is expected to become a powerful hurricane late this week, but it will turn north over the open Atlantic and is no threat to land. A new wave in the far eastern Atlantic is expected to become a tropical storm this week, but it will also turn north and will not affect any land.

Closer to home, disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea are associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form over the next several days while it moves generally northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the southern Gulf of Mexico. Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the progress of this system.

The National Hurricane Center gives it a 40% chance of development; global models continue to show a weak system over the Gulf in five to eight days with slow, erratic movement. The tropical low will drift toward the Florida Peninsula (not the panhandle) and will most likely be just a rainmaker. Of course, this could change, and we will keep a close eye on the situation.

RACE WEEKEND: We can’t rule out a few isolated showers Friday at Talladega, but Saturday and Sunday will be warm and dry with a good supply of sunshine both days. The high will be near 80 on Friday, followed by mid 80s over the weekend. Lows will be in the 60s.

ON THIS DATE IN 1893: The village of Caminadaville, Louisiana, was destroyed by a massive hurricane. Caminadaville was a vibrant fishing community in the late 19th century on Cheniere Caminada, adjacent to Grand Isle in coastal Jefferson Parish in Louisiana. It took five days for the news of this devastating hurricane to reach New Orleans.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.