DANGEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM/TORNADO OUTBREAK AHEAD: A dangerous outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes is forecast across a large area beginning late tonight. A dynamic storm system will bring two rounds of severe thunderstorms.

Round one

• The broad window for the first round of severe thunderstorms will come from around 11 tonight through 8 a.m. Saturday.
• The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has defined an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) for much of west Alabama for this event, with a slight risk (level 2) as far east and south as Scottsboro, Prattville and Jackson.
• The highest risk of severe storms with round one will be over the western half of the state, mainly along and west of I-65. The severe threat is much lower over the eastern counties, where the air will be more stable.
• Where storms develop, they will be capable of producing hail and damaging winds. A few tornadoes are possible as well, mainly over west Alabama.

Round two

• This is the main event; the window is from noon Saturday through 3 a.m. Sunday.
• A rare high risk (level 5 of 5) has been defined for parts of Alabama and Mississippi, including Tuscaloosa and Birmingham. The rest of the state is in a level 4 risk. The last high risk issued for a part of Alabama was on March 25, 2021.
• Storms will be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. A few violent, long-track tornadoes are possible. This is a dangerous setup.

• A flash flood watch has been issued for the northern third of Alabama, where the heaviest rain is expected, and a wind advisory has been issued for the northern two-thirds of the state. Gradient winds will gust to 30-35 mph at times.

Key messages

• I don’t use strong wording often, but in this case, it is needed. The threat is real, and the event is a dangerous situation for all of Alabama and most of the southern U.S. The goal is no loss of life and no serious injuries; we all have a big role to play.
• It is critical that you hear warnings. An outdoor siren is never, ever a primary way of hearing warnings. The “siren mentality” has killed more people than anything else during tornado events in Alabama. The baseline for every home and business is a NOAA Weather Radio; unfortunately, many retailers have sold out of them due to the high demand this week. On your phone, be sure emergency alerts are enabled in notification settings; this is the tone you hear for tornado warnings and amber alerts. Have the free ABC 33/40 weather app installed. Turn the sleep/do not disturb modes off for the weekend so you will receive notifications at night.
• In your safe place, have helmets for everyone, including adults. Use a car seat for infants. Most serious injuries in tornadoes involve blunt-force trauma above the shoulders. Wearing hard shoes is also a good idea. Have a portable air horn for everyone; they can alert first responders to your location if you are injured.
• If you live in a mobile home, know the location of the nearest shelter, or a business open 24/7 that can serve as a shelter. Have transportation arranged so you can get there quickly. You cannot stay in a mobile home if you are in a tornado warning polygon.
• A car is a death trap during a tornado. If you are driving and get a tornado warning notification, pull off as quickly as possible and go into a gas station, fast food restaurant or any other business that can serve as a shelter. Do not drive into a tornado warning polygon.
• You can be a hero. If you are reading this, you pay attention to weather. Let friends and family members today know this is a dangerous threat. During the event, if you have a friend or loved one in a tornado warning polygon, call or text them to let them know of the immediate danger. You can play a huge role in saving lives.
• Subscribe to the James Spann and ABC 33/40 YouTube channels so you can watch our live coverage. During the event itself, all of my attention is focused on the live coverage. I am not able to respond to the hundreds of requests for individual briefings during a severe weather outbreak.
• Get the warnings, have a good plan and we get through this together.

The sky will clear Sunday, but a few isolated showers are possible during the afternoon as the upper trough passes through.

NEXT WEEK: Most of the week will be dry, but a cold front will bring a band of showers and storms into the state late Wednesday and Wednesday night. For now, it doesn’t look like a major severe weather threat.

ON THIS DATE IN 1993: Birmingham’s low was 2 degrees, a record low for March. It came when 1 foot of snow was on the ground from the Blizzard of ’93.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.