Click here to view or print the entire September report compliments of the ACRE Corporate Cabinet.

Sales: According to the North Alabama Multiple Listing Service, Morgan County (Decatur) residential sales totaled 119 units in September, an increase in sales growth of 10 percent or 11 units above the same period last year. Year-to-date sales through September are up 23.5 percent from 2014. Two more resources to review market: Quarterly Report and Annual Report

Forecast: September sales were 21 units or 21 percent above our monthly forecast. ACRE’s year-to-date sales forecast through September projected 869 closed transactions while the actual sales were 1,086 units, a cumulative variance of 25 percent.

Morgan County residential sales hit 119 in September, 111 better than last September and 41 (52.6 percent) better than the county’s trough in 2010.

Supply: Morgan County area housing inventory totaled 839 units, a decrease of 16.2 percent from September 2014. Inventory was also 2.8 percent below the prior month. Historical data indicates September inventory on average (2010-14) increases from the month of August by 5.4 percent. The inventory-to-sales ratio in September was 7.1 months of housing supply. Restated, at the September sales pace, it would take 7.1 months to absorb the current inventory for sale. The market equilibrium (balance between supply and demand) is considered to be approximately 6 months during the month of September. Last September, the months of supply stood at 9.3 months, so the 24 percent decrease points toward a market favoring sellers. The months of supply has now declined 52.1 percent from the month of September peak (14.7 months) reached in 2010 which is encouraging news.

Demand:  September residential sales were 15 percent below the prior month. This is right in line with historical data, which indicates September sales on average (2010-14) decrease from the month of August by 12.5 percent. The average Days on Market (DOM) until a listing sold was 120 days,up 2.6 percent from last September.

Pricing: The Morgan County median sales price in September was $119,500, which is 14.6 percent below September 2014’s $139,950 and 1.5 percent ($121,379) below the month prior. This contrasts with historical data (2010-14) which indicates the median sales price increases 3,9 percent from August. It should also be noted that the differing sample size (# of residential sales of comparative months) can contribute to statistical volatility including pricing. We highly recommend consulting with a local real estate professional to discuss pricing as it can and will vary from neighborhood to neighborhood.

Industry Perspective: “Our forecast for the year is largely unchanged despite recent market volatility. Fundamentals are positive, suggesting potential for some improvement in the fourth quarter,” said Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan. “While core personal consumption expenditures experienced their weakest gain in more than four years in July, real consumer spending rebounded during the month and August auto sales were stronger than they have been in a decade. Consumers may get an added boost during the year from subdued inflation given the stronger dollar and low oil prices. Overall, we anticipate economic growth of 2.4 percent for 2015, up slightly from 2.1 percent in the prior forecast. Consumer and government spending as well as nonresidential and residential investment are expected to contribute to growth while net exports and inventory investment will likely pose headwinds.” For full report click HERE.

Average sales price was down 16 percent from last September’s $143,413 price but still above the 2012 and 2013 September average price.

Days on the market in September peaked in Morgan county in 2011 at 130 and has been below that since. DOM was 120 last month.

Inventory is down in Morgan County overall. Year-over-year saw a 16 percent dip to 839 units listed for sale. Month-to-month saw a 3 percent dip.

Median sales price took a similar dive as the average sales price, going from $139,950 last September to $119,500 last month.

Months of supply also continue to drop, which is good news for Morgan County. It was at 7.1 in September, down from 14.7 at its peak in 2010.

Sales were 10 percent higher last month than the previous September.

Sales still have not gotten back to 2006 levels (159), but last month’s numbers were 11 units better than September 2014.

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Bryan Davis is the research/media Coordinator for the Alabama Center for Real Estate housed within the Culverhouse College of Commerce at the University of Alabama. He can be reached at 205-348-5416 or at bkdavis@culverhouse.ua.edu.

The Morgan County Residential Monthly Report is work product developed in conjunction with the Morgan County Association of Realtors to better serve area consumers. The ACRE monthly report is provided to illustrate the “general” market direction & trends when comparing prior periods with the most current residential data available. Real estate is local and statistics will fluctuate between areas within an area including subdivisions, and ACRE recommends that you consult a local real estate professional for “specific” advice associated with your market. The Morgan County Association of Realtors (MCAOR) promotes educates and supports its members in serving the public while adhering to the RealtorCode of Ethics. In partnership withe Alabama Association of Realtors and the National Association of Realtors, MCAOR to expand opportunities for real property ownership and to preserve private property rights.  The Alabama Center for Real Estate‘s core purpose is to advance the real estate industry in Alabama by providing relevant resources in the areas of research, education and outreach.