This survey projects expectations for the second quarter of 2016. The scale ranges from 0-100 with 0 being much worse, 100 being much better, and 50 indicating no change expected.

Click here to view our full report.

The professional real estate community’s outlook for second quarter 2016 cooled somewhat over last years’ robust expectations. All of the overall residential and commercial indicators remain quite positive, comfortably over 50 but down somewhat from last year levels. The indicators indicate positive expectations for second quarter sales activity. In the aggregate the indicators suggest continued expansion expected.

The overall Total Stat, which combines all measures, is at 57, quite positive yet down 3 points from last year. The availability of credit is now rated at 51, a slight improvement from prior quarters.

This quarter showed expected seasonal expansion from prior quarters’ growth expectations. The overall total score improved by 3 from last quarter to 57, yet down by 3 from last year.

The overall stat measure, and the other combined scores, indicate that the residential and commercial markets should be very similar to last year at this time. This quarter, however, the indicators have continued to diverge a bit more than we saw last year, perhaps indicating more variance in differing markets.

The below chart reflects the aggregate scores for the survey overall. The overall total stat score is in bold blue.

Commercial Market

Commercial market participants (the majority of the respondents are from the Birmingham market area) lost some enthusiasm.

The Total Stat is at 53 this quarter, off 1 from last quarter and off 3 points from last year. Sales expectations remain positive at 57, off by 1 from last quarter and down 4 from last year. The score for inventory availability, even from last quarter at 53, and even with last year.

Regional results

Area scores have begun to diverge for “total scores,” between 54 and 60.

The scores remain positive, indicating normal market conditions across the state. On an overall basis, all areas sales expectations experienced a normal seasonal improvement for the upcoming quarter compared to last.

The scores were lower than last year’s healthy levels.

The South Central area including Montgomery saw a year to year decline of 5 points. The moving average line (yellow, below) is the prior 4 quarters averaged of the Alabama expectations, which removes the effect of seasonality. It is now pointing slightly downward but remaining at a healthy level. The current quarter sales expectation scores are ranging from 60 (the North/Huntsville area) to 54 (the South Central Montgomery area), indicating positive expectations for the first quarter.

The charts below also have a “moving average” line (bold blue) which averages the “Total Stat” for prior 4 quarters, by area, to smooth out the seasonal variations. The quarter to quarter variation is highly seasonal, but the moving average shows a better picture of the overall trend, which is quite positive.

North

North Alabama total score was off 1 point from last year at 60 and up 6 points from last quarter.

The sales outlook improved by 6 points from last quarter and off 4 points from last year to 60. The credit outlook improved by 2 points from last quarter to 54, off 4 points from last year. Price expectations declined by 1 points from last year to 55, still favorable conditions for sellers.

North Central

North Central total score was off 3 points from last year at 57 and up 5 points from last quarter. The sales outlook improved by 6 points from last quarter and off 3 points from last year to 64.

The credit outlook declined by 2 points from last quarter to 54, up 4 points from last year. Price expectations declined by 3 points from last year to 55, still favorable conditions for sellers.

South Central 

The South Central Region overall score declined by 6 to 54 from last year. The outlook for sales declined by 5 from last year to 61. Credit declined by 8 from last year to 47, indicating some concern.

South

The Southern Region overall scores remained strong. The overall score remained comfortably in the expansion zone at 58, a decline of 2 from last year. The sales score of 64 is off 3 from last year. Price expectations is at 60, off 1 from last year. Credit availability is 5,4 off by 2 from last year.

About the Alabama Real Estate Confidence Index & Survey

360 professionals responded to the second quarter 2016 survey, which was conducted during March 2016. The survey, conducted by the Alabama Center For Real Estate, has the largest participation of any real estate survey. It provides important market insights.