James Spann: Rain remains elusive in Alabama from Alabama NewsCenter on Vimeo.

WE NEED RAIN: Birmingham’s rain for September so far is only 0.56 of an inch, and we have experienced measurable rain on only two days, Sept. 11 and 14. If we don’t get any rain for the rest of the month, this will put September 2019 in the top 11 driest Septembers on record. The driest came in September 1955, when only a trace was measured. The total in September 1927 was only 0.03, and September 1899 was 0.04. Climatologically speaking, September is our second-driest month of the year (October is the driest).

With a weak surface front in the area we will mention isolated, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day for the rest of the week, but odds of any one spot getting wet are only 10-20%. Otherwise, look for partly sunny days with afternoon highs generally in the low 90s, about 10 degrees above average for late September in Alabama.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: The upper ridge will strengthen, meaning hot, dry weather for the state Saturday and Sunday. Look for mostly sunny days, fair nights and highs in the mid 90s, right at record levels.

NEXT WEEK: Hot, dry weather will likely continue Monday through Wednesday. Heat levels should come down a bit late in the week with some chance of scattered showers, but still not the kind of widespread, beneficial rain we need.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: It will be mostly clear and warm for the high school games Friday night. Temperatures will fall from the low 80s at kickoff into the 70s by the second half of the games.

Saturday, Alabama hosts Ole Miss at Bryant-Denny Stadium (2:30 p.m. kickoff). The sky will be sunny with temperatures in the mid 90s at kickoff, falling back to near 90 by the fourth quarter.

Auburn will host Mississippi State Saturday evening at Jordan-Hare Stadium (kickoff at 6). The sky will be clear with temperatures falling from near 89 at kickoff into the low 80s by the final whistle.

UAB travels to Bowling Green to take on Western Kentucky Saturday evening (kickoff at 6). Clear weather is the forecast with a kickoff temperature near 87 degrees, falling to near 80 by the fourth quarter.

Jacksonville State will also be on the road, playing Austin Peay in Clarksville, Tennessee, Saturday afternoon (kickoff at 2). Expect a sunny sky with temperatures in the low 90s at kickoff, falling into the upper 80s by the end of the game.

TROPICS: Three tropical storms are on the board this morning:

• Tropical Storm Jerry in the Atlantic is packing sustained winds of 60 mph and is slowly weakening. It will pass near Bermuda Tuesday on the way eastward, away from the U.S.
• Tropical Storm Lorenzo in the eastern Atlantic is forecast to become a powerful hurricane later this week, but thankfully it will turn northward well east of the U.S.
• Karen is a tropical storm again and will move over Puerto Rico today with gusty winds and heavy rain. Sustained winds are 40 mph, and some slow strengthening is possible in coming days as it moves northward. Karen is expected to slow and turn westward this weekend in response to a ridge north of the system, but it remains to be seen whether it will affect the Southeast — just a possibility for now.

A tropical wave near the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula will move toward the Gulf Coast of Mexico through midweek. For now, the National Hurricane Center gives it only a low chance of development.

ON THIS DATE IN 1939: A thunderstorm dropped 6.45 inches in six hours at Indio, California. This rainfall preceded “El Cordonazo” or “The Lash of St. Francis,” an actual tropical storm. For the entire storm, which started on this date and ended on Sept. 26, 4 inches of rain fell across the deserts and mountains as a dying tropical cyclone moved across Baja California into southwestern Arizona. This storm was the second tropical cyclone to impact California during this month. A strong El Niño may have contributed to the activity. The tropical storm produced 50 mph winds over the ocean and estimated seas of 40 feet. September rain records were set with 5.66 inches in Los Angeles and 11.6 inches at Mt. Wilson. Forty-five people died from sinking boats, and harbors were damaged. Total damage was estimated at $2 million. Californians were unprepared and were alerted to their vulnerability to tropical storms. In response, the weather bureau established a forecast office for Southern California, which began operations in February 1940.

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